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Daily Insights - March 02, 2015

PBoC cuts and solid PMIs support markets

  • In India, the Modi government’s first full budget struck a fine balance between fiscal discipline and supporting the cyclical economic recovery. Fiscal consolidation continued with the FY16 fiscal deficit target lowered to 3.9% of GDP from 4.1% in FY15. Growth-positive measures included lowering the corporate tax rate over four years and implementing a GST from 2016. The government and the RBI agreed on flexible CPI targeting with a January 2016 target of 6% and FY17 target of 4+/-2%. The budget was well received: the SENSEX and the INR are stronger and IGBs flat.
  • In terms of data, the disruptive effect of the port strike on Asian activity indicators is reflected in the Korean February trade and January production reports. Stripping out the Lunar New Year distortions, the underlying trend is still one of stabilization, with leading indicators pointing to stronger activity ahead. Weak inflation outturns have persisted in Thailand and Indonesia.
  • This week, the market will focus on activity data and some policy decisions. US NFP payrolls, core PCE and unit labour costs should also be of interest. In the euro area, we have retail sales (Wednesday), German orders (Thursday) and IP (Friday). On the policy front, we have the ECB policy meeting, monetary policy decisions in Brazil (a hike expected despite a likely recession), Canada (no change expected), and the BoE (no change expected). Australia has a busy week with the RBA decision (no change expected), GDP, retail sales, and trade balance.


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