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Daily Insights - October 22, 2014

Better China data fail to support equities

  • Economic data this week are unlikely to ease concerns about slowing global growth and declining global inflation expectations. The data calendar in the US is light outside the September CPI report tomorrow, where we look for headline and core CPI to rise 1.7% and 1.6% y/y, respectively. Our thesis of USD outperformance driven by relative US economic strength and interest rate divergence remains intact, but is at risk of delay pending soft underlying inflation trends. Indeed, the fed funds future market’s December 2015 contract has declined to 44bp, from 74bp just two weeks ago, weighing on the USD. Today, there are no data or events in Europe to note. In the US, we forecast existing home sales of 5.08mn saar in September (cf. 5.10).
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