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Daily Insights - November 25, 2014

Solid German consumption and exports support the DAX

  • USDJPY is consolidating around 118 after the release of the minutes of the 31 October monetary policy meeting suggested that the Policy Board was sharply split in its easing decision. Governor Kuroda in a speech today, however, defended the decision and discussed merits of a weak yen. Also in Asia, AUD/USD fell following dovish comments by RBA’s Deputy Governor Lowe.
  • Thursday’s OPEC meeting is one of the more anticipated meetings for some time. The reduced leverage that OPEC now has over the oil market is likely to make it more cautious about cutting production. Rapid non-OPEC production means it faces the risk that even a large cut to supply may not be enough to support prices and could simply result in lost market share and revenue.
  • With lower oil prices providing a perfect window of opportunity, Malaysia is following India and Indonesia in addressing fuel subsidies by moving retail fuel pricing to an automatic price mechanism. However, Malaysia’s 2015 fiscal deficit might not fall much below the government’s target of 3.0% of GDP.
  • In Brazil, several press reports indicate that the government will announce President Rousseff's new economic team. The appointment of Joaquim Levy as the next Minister of Finance may signal an appetite for more orthodox fiscal policy and tolerance of a weaker exchange rate.
  • An interesting consensus has emerged based on our Q4 Global Macro Survey: Investors are bullish on US equities, complacent about a more hawkish Fed, and bearish on China. However, using historical survey results, we find that following the consensus on risky assets often leads to market losses. We warn against increased pessimism over EM and European equities, as well as optimism about credit and US equities.


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