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Daily Insights 

July 2, 2015
 

Markets stalled ahead of payrolls

  • European equities have struggled to follow gains in ex-China Asia markets. The USD has largely retained yesterday’s data-inspired rally amid further increases in US yields and ahead of the early release of June payrolls later today (due to the US 4th of July holiday). We expect payrolls to rise by 250k (consensus: 233k), the unemployment rate to drop to 5.4% from 5.5% (consensus: 5.4%) and a 2.3% y/y increase in average hourly earnings (consensus: 2.3%). We have recently argued that a surge in part-time employment is not an indication of significant labor market slack.
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